Studies of crime and weather have largely excluded arson from empirical and theoretical consideration, yet weather could influence arson frequency over short time frames, influencing the motivation and activity of potential arsonists, as well as the physical possibility of fire ignition. This study aims to understand the role of weather on urban arson in order to determine its role in explaining short-term variations in arson frequency.
We use data reported to the Ontario Fire Marshall's office of arson events in the City of Toronto between 1996 and 2007 to estimate the effect of temperature, precipitation, wind conditions and air pressure on arson events while controlling for the effects of holidays, weekends and other calendar-related events.
We find that temperature has an independent association with daily arson frequency, as do precipitation and air pressure. In this study area, cold weather has a larger influence on arson frequency than hot weather. There is also some evidence that extremely hot and cold temperatures may be associated with lower day-time arson frequency, while night-time arson seems to have a simpler positive linear association with temperature.
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By: Yiannakoulias N1, Kielasinska E2.
- 1School of Geography and Earth Sciences, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, L8S4K1, Canada.
- 2School of Geography and Earth Sciences, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, L8S4K1, Canada.
In light of the emphasis on enforcement-based approaches towards sex work, and the well-known negative impacts of these approaches on women's health, safety and well-being, we conducted a study to investigate the prevalence and correlates of recent incarceration among a cohort of women sex workers in Vancouver, Canada.
Data were obtained from an open prospective community cohort of female and transgender women sex workers, known as An Evaluation of Sex Workers' Health Access (AESHA). Bivariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses, using generalized estimating equations (GEE), were used to model the effect of social and structural factors on the likelihood of incarceration over the 44-month follow-up period (January 2010-August 2013).
Among 720 sex workers, 62.5% (n = 450) reported being incarcerated in their lifetime and 23.9% (n = 172) being incarcerated at least once during the study period. Of the 172 participants, about one third (36.6%) reported multiple episodes of incarceration. In multivariable GEE analyses, younger age, being of a sexual/gender minority, heavy drinking, being born in Canada, living in unstable housing conditions, servicing clients in public spaces (versus formal sex work establishments) and experiencing police harassment without arrest remain independently correlated with incarceration.
This prospective study found a very high prevalence and frequency of incarceration among women sex workers in Vancouver, Canada, with the most vulnerable and marginalized women at increased risk of incarceration. Given the well-known social and health harms associated with incarceration, and associations between police harassment and incarceration in this study, our findings further add to growing calls to move away from criminalized and enforcement-based approaches to sex work in Canada and globally.
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