We use data reported to the Ontario Fire Marshall's office of arson events in the City of Toronto between 1996 and 2007 to estimate the effect of temperature, precipitation, wind conditions and air pressure on arson events while controlling for the effects of holidays, weekends and other calendar-related events.
We find that temperature has an independent association with daily arson frequency, as do precipitation and air pressure. In this study area, cold weather has a larger influence on arson frequency than hot weather. There is also some evidence that extremely hot and cold temperatures may be associated with lower day-time arson frequency, while night-time arson seems to have a simpler positive linear association with temperature.
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By: Yiannakoulias N1, Kielasinska E2.
- 1School of Geography and Earth Sciences, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, L8S4K1, Canada.
- 2School of Geography and Earth Sciences, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, L8S4K1, Canada.